We’ve entered 2018, which means that the midterm elections are now less than a year away. And according to a new poll, Democrats are looking strong, thanks to women and independent voters. Better late than never.
The Washington Post recaps the results of their new poll with ABC News:
By 51 percent to 39 percent, more registered voters say they would support the Democratic candidate in their congressional district over the Republican. Democrats’ 12 percentage-point advantage on this “generic ballot” question is the largest in Post-ABC polling since 2006, although it is slightly larger than other polls this month.
Judging from past elections, Democrats are expected to need a six- to eight-point advantage in national support this fall to gain the 24 seats needed win control of the House. Election handicappers say a Democratic takeover is possible, but not yet likely.
“Antipathy for Trump is concentrated among both women and independents, helping to explain Democrats’ strong standing,” the Post explains. Some of those white women who flocked to Trump appear to be souring on him:
The Post-ABC poll finds Democrats holding a 57 percent to 31 percent advantage among female voters, double the size of Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton’s margin in the 2016 election. Nonwhite women favor Democrats by a 53-point margin, somewhat smaller than Clinton’s 63-point advantage over Trump in 2016. But white women have moved sharply in Democrats’ direction, favoring them over Republicans by 12 points after supporting Trump by nine points in 2016 and Republican candidates by 14 points in the 2014 midterm election, according to network exit polls.
The Post also explains that independents are opting for the Democrats by 16 points, noting that “The swing group has been decisive in three consecutive midterm election waves.”
But of course for all intents and purposes it’s one million years until Election Day 2018, and none of this matters if people don’t actually go out and vote. Vote! Everybody has to vote!